myNetWatchman KnowledgeBase
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MSBlast Worm Propagation
As of 2003-08-13 06:00 UTC myNetWatchman has received reports
of MSBlast-like scanning (tcp/135) from nearly 200,000 distinct
Internet hosts. The following is a chart which maps the progress
of MSblast over 10 minute intervals starting at 2003-08-11
16:00 UTC which appears to be when the worm was first launched:

Though the number of infected host is already rivaling the
biggest worms of the last few years (Code Red, Nimda, Slammer,
etc.), it is no where near as bad as it could be when you
consider that there are likely 10s of MILLIONS of systems
on the Internet which are vulnerable.
I believe MSBlast's impact has been muted due to several
factors:
- Relative slow propagation rate. It scans
at most 10 IP/second vs. 100s/second for Code Red/Nimda
and 1,000s/second for Slammer
- Poor target IP address selection algorithm.
A significant number of IP addresses that MSBlast attempts
to infect are either Reserved, Invalid, unrouteable, or
otherwise bogus IP addresses
- Reliance on Trivial File Transfer Protocol to
propagate the worm code. The worm uses TFTP to
pull the worm code onto the next potential victim. Though
TFTP does have mechanisms to ensure reliable file transfer,
it is no where near as persistent and reliable as FTP or
HTTP...especially when trying to operate under the additional
network congestion that the worm itself generated
- Swift movement by ISPs to block tcp/135 activity.
Because the RPC exploit has been known for several weeks,
most major ISPs have been anticipating a major worm release
and have had filters at the ready.
Credits
These comments are a result of the collaborative research
efforts of Philip Sloss, Steve Friedl, Ryan Permeh, and myself,
Lawrence Baldwin.
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